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21 Aslan Karatsev in his first career five-set match. Brooksby is one of the best prospects at just 20 years old and in just his fourth Grand Slam main draw appearance, he reached the fourth round defeating fellow American Taylor Fritz and then upsetting No. And ultimately, that was fulfilled as three, Jenson Brooksby, Reilly Opelka, and Frances Tiafoe, made the fourth round (in the last five years there have only been four to reach the round of 16). This was Isner’s second consecutive first round Slam exit after losing at Wimbledon so it might be a sign that the most successful American player of this decade is reaching the end of his career.Īt the outset of the tournament, our original simulation gave solid odds to a range of American players in the field ranging from veterans to young guns. 20 year-old Brandon Nakashima ousted veteran John Isner in straight sets. 68 at the time) at the Newport tournament in July. Cressy’s previous career high win was over fellow 6’6’’ American Sam Querrey (ranked No. 9 seed Pablo Carreno Busta in a fifth-set tiebreak. Former NCAA doubles champion and UCLA Bruin, Maxime Cressy pulled off the match of his career defeating No. Many Americans were on the giving end of these matches accounting for four of the ten biggest upsets. After the first four rounds of the tournament, here are some of the most surprising upsets. The men’s side was characterized by a lot of upsets with 12 seeds falling in the first round and five in the second. Using the initial simulation, we can quantify exactly how rare certain upsets are rather than just looking at the ranking differential between the players. Having a draw with 128 players, there is pretty much guaranteed to be some big upsets. Obviously, all of their current probabilities to win the title will be greater than their original as there are only 8 players remaining (3 rounds) as opposed to the initial 128 players (7 rounds). Now that Djokovic has reached the quarters, along with 7 other players, we can run a new simulation to give updated probabilities for each of the remaining players to advance. 1 seed Novak Djokovic had a 62% chance of reaching the quarterfinals given that he had to win four matches to get there. For example, at the start of the tournament, No. At the start of the tournament, we simulated the original draw to give all players a probability not only to win the whole tournament but also to reach a specific round. With 120 singles matches completed on the men’s side of the draw, that provides a great opportunity to look back at some of the best matches so far as well as look forward to the exciting matchups to come in the final weekend.
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